Why We Teach to the Outlier: Preparing for the Unthinkable

Every time you turn on the TV or scroll through social media, it feels like there is another active shooter incident somewhere in America. The 24-hour news cycle jumps on these stories, especially when it comes to how law enforcement responded or how they did not.

The reality is, most officers will never respond to an active shooter during their entire career.

According to the FBI, there are about 35 active shooter incidents each year in the U.S. There are also roughly 1.3 million active law enforcement officers. That means the odds of any one officer facing that kind of situation in a given year are extremely low.

So why do we train so much for it?

Look at commercial airline pilots. There are over 100,000 of them in the U.S., and crashes are incredibly rare. Major airlines had zero fatal crashes last year. The odds of a pilot being involved in one are less than one in 800,000 flights. Even over a 30-year career, the chances stay low. That kind of safety does not happen by luck. It comes from relentless training, strict standards, and a mindset that treats preparation as nonnegotiable.

We train for active shooter incidents not because they are common, but because when they do happen, we cannot afford to be unprepared.

When an active shooter response goes wrong, the damage runs deeper than the scene itself. It shakes a community’s trust in law enforcement and leaves scars that do not fade. Look at Uvalde, Texas. Over 370 officers were on scene at Robb Elementary, but it took 77 minutes to stop the shooter. During that time, kids were trapped inside, calling 911 and begging for help. The problem was not a lack of personnel. It was a breakdown in leadership, communication, and readiness. That kind of failure does not just cost lives, it breaks the bond between the community and the people who are supposed to protect it.

Active shooter incidents are a textbook example of a high impact, low frequency event. They do not happen often, but when they do, the outcome hinges on how well the first few minutes are handled. That is why the "it probably will not happen here" mindset is so dangerous. The odds may be low, but the cost of being unprepared is too high.

In law enforcement, we train constantly for the things that happen every day, like traffic stops, domestic calls, and burglaries. But the rare events are the ones that test everything. They expose gaps in communication, leadership, and decision making under pressure. If your training does not account for high stakes scenarios, you are leaving officers to make critical decisions under extreme stress without a solid foundation. In those moments, tactical paralysis, confusion, and breakdowns in communication are far more likely.

Planning for these kinds of events is not about living in fear. It is about leadership, responsibility, and being honest about the risks we face. The public expects us to be ready. More importantly, they deserve for us to be ready. And that means treating these rare but devastating events with the same seriousness we give to the things we deal with every day.